Wednesday, September 14, 2011


IAAF World Champs: 800m women, questions but few answers

Women's 800m: Savinova pips Semenya

The women's 800m event deserves a post all of its own.  I'll post on the rest of the day's action a little later, but the women's 800m gold has just been won, and it wasn't Caster Semenya winning it.  Instead, it was Mariya Savinova of Russia who won in a very quick 1:55.87, edging Semenya in the final 50m.  Semenya ran 1:56.35, easily the fastest time she has done since her Berlin triumph two years ago, when the controversy began, and Janeth Jepkosgei took bronze, reward for her efforts in setting the race up with a very fast first lap.

The race was an intriguing tactical one - Janeth Jepkosgei took the pace out hard (26.61s first 200m), and led through the bell in 55.86s, with Semenya in fifth and Savinova sixth, about 5m behind.  Savinova had clearly decided that she would mark Semenya the whole way, and as Semenya made her move down the backstraight, she followed.  600m was reached in 1:26.07, a 30-second interval for Jepkosgei, probably half a second quicker for Semenya, who was on the shoulder of the leaders and poised to move clear.

Coming off the final bend, Semenya had taken the lead, and it looked like a dead certainty that she would run away from the field.  Given the fast pace up to 600m, a repeat or even an improvement of the 1:55.45 of Berlin looked on the cards.  But Savinova held her, and with 50m to go, began to close the 3m gap that she'd held her at down the back straight.  In the final, 20m, Semenya faded and Savinova come through to win gold.

Caster Semenya - the questions will continue

Semenya again looked very relaxed, casual even, when being passed for gold in the final 20m, and I am sure that there will once again be suspicions that she "lost deliberately".  In the aftermath of her semi-final, where she looked completely dominant, that theme began to reappear, with chat forums resonating with the theory that Semenya had been losing races on purpose this season to keep the attention off her.

I am sure that the questions will continue, and Semenya will again be labeled as either a cheat (if she wins), or a 'fixer' (when she loses, as people suggest, on purpose).  I think both are slightly unfair accusations, and require some clarification and context.  Certainly, she is not a cheat - she may well have had an advantage as a result of whatever intersex condition may have led to increased testosterone levels, but that's not the same as cheating.  So again, I'd caution against "personalizing" the debate, making it about Semenya.  It's not too different from Pistorius case, actually - it's not a question of cheating, but is a question of unfair advantage.  And that's certainly a valid concern, which is why the post-Berlin process happened.

In Semenya's case, and I've written this before, I am fairly certain that in the aftermath of Berlin, she did receive some medical treatment.  There is no other explanation for the length of time that it took to clear her to run.  A legal issue would have taken weeks, maybe a few months, but to miss nearly a year can only be explained if there was medical intervention that required observation.  Also, if you look at the IAAF's latest position stand on intersex conditions, they have clearly learned from the Semenya experience, and it's no co-incidence that the statement includes mention of correcting testosterone to normal female levels.  The IAAF, I think, knew that they had to intervene, and I believe they did, setting a precedent that they then wrote into future policy.

So I'm confident in saying that there was chemical treatment to reduce the testosterone levels.  That would also explain the injury problems, the inconsistencies, and the relatively poorer performances in the last twelve months.  If that is the case, then people can of course still object to Semenya's participation on the grounds that she has "historical" advantage because of the shape of the skeleton etc.  But I believe that most advantages would diminish soon, and certainly will over more time.

My opinion is that if her testosterone levels have been within the normal range for six months, and continue to stay there, then I'd be satisfied that the advantage is no longer of concern for competition.  She would be at the extreme in certain respects, but not threatening to cross the 'line' we draw to make the distinction between male and female competition.  Of course, when she runs 1:56.35, less than a second slower than the Berlin time, people will question the effectiveness of the treatment, and that will be an interesting debate to follow in coming weeks.

Monitoring of an intervention?

The big question, however, is monitoring of those levels.  The irony is that if Semenya has received chemical treatment, then she may be one of the only athletes in the world who is required to use drugs.  And failure to use the drugs (dope) would be the problem.  If Semenya's participation is dependent on lowering the testosterone levels, then ensuring the effectiveness is crucial.

Now I don't know how this has been monitored.  Is it possible that Semenya can stop medication and return to the Berlin situation?  I don't know enough about the process, how long the treatment would last or how effective it might be (will make some enquiries with endocrinologists) and so I'll steer clear of speculating on that detail. But I believe that if the testosterone levels were raised (which is a near certainty), then the right thing was done in reducing them, and I have no objections to Semenya's participation, providing it is monitored regularly.

Semenya's racing strategy

As for the theory that Semenya is running slowly on purpose, I can appreciate why people think that, because certainly, I can't think of many athletes who look as casual as Semenya in any race situation - it is so startling how she seems to "jog" when others are failing.  But I see it differently.  There are far better ways to win a silver medal, lose a race and divert attention of yourself than what Semenya did today.  If she was deliberately trying NOT to win, then it would be far easier to come through late, especially in a race like today's where early pace is fast and the gaps are large.   Would a late charge from sixth to second (possible if you watch the race) not divert attention more than a fade into silver?  But instead, Semenya attacked the race with 250m to go, assumed the lead, ran in front for the world to see, and looked to be going away before losing gold.

That's a sure way to attract attention, not to deflect it, (for proof of this, see the forums which are already buzzing with allegations of "tanking on purpose").  I remain unconvinced about this deliberate loss argument.  I think it more likely that Semenya is just a runner who always looks casual, regardless of race situation or effort.  Back in 2008, at the World Junior Championships in Poland, Semenya finished seventh in her heat and looked the same as she did today - she seems not to have it in her style to lose form and look like she is straining.  It may be the shape of her skeleton, the large upper body and that she seems to 'lope', and I think this is more likely than the theory that she hit the front, opened up a lead in the final 50m of the World Champs, and then decided to lose the race on purpose from there.

The lack of transparency

In all this, the biggest issue has been the lack of transparency and the secrecy.  The initial leak was of course wrong, and Semenya should never have been subjected to public speculation about her biological sex.  But once out, once the world knew there was a problem, it was critical to resolve the situation, or at least reassure people that something had been done to ensure fair competition (even if that meant announcing that there was no advantage to begin with - people wouldn't have believed it, but it would be something).

That was, of course, Semenya's prerogative.  The IAAF could not announce that there was a condition and that it had been treated, because the medical information belongs to the patient.  So I felt from the outset that Semenya needed to disclose something.  Not the full details, not a complete description, but something to assure people that her participation had been cleared and perhaps that she would continue to co-operate with the authorities in the future.  Maybe even release testosterone level results today, in the same way that some cyclists have taken to making public their blood data as part of the biological passport system.

The problem we have now is that everyone knows half the story, and in the absence of facts, they will create the other half!  And, whether the result of being misinformed, ignorant or hostile, the blanks that are filled in will almost always be worse than the reality.  The end result is that Semenya loses either way, and the only way I can see this being overcome is to control the information herself.

But instead of truth, what we have is a shroud of secrecy, mostly from Semenya's management.  Her management team have made some extra-ordinary statements, including one that she was going to win the double in Daegu, even though she was not even entered into the 1500m.  They have asked for millions for sponsorship back here in South Africa.  They also hinted recently that she would be asking for money to give interviews to the media, which is astonishing.

You can't blame Semenya for her mistrust of the media, but the moronic press releases made by her PR and management teams defy belief, and only serve to heighten the focus (and negative attention) on her.  She'll find a great deal of sympathy (as she should) for her character in continuing the sport, for her resolve, which has been incredible.  But she'll also face a great deal of hostility because of how little people know about the science and the process involved.

And she can control the flow of that information, including the public perception, by talking about it.  Again, cycling has set the precedent that cyclists sometimes disclose their blood data, and Semenya could do the same.  She'll never win everyone over, but I think many will accept what has happened as the best possible resolution, provided they know it.  As it stands now, few people will because they simply don't know.

On that note, it was very good to see the smiles and interaction with her fellow competitors after this race.  It's easy to be a good sport when you're winning, but even Savinova seemed more amiable than her previous comments might have suggested.  These are good signs, not proof, but hopefully a sign that among fellow athletes, things are returning to normal.

An insoluble problem?

Ultimately, Semenya's situation asks questions for which there may be no answer.  I compared it earlier to the Pistorius case, but in truth, it's even more complex, because a) there is less scientific evidence available to quantify the Semenya advantage than for Pistorius' advantage and b) there seems to have been some treatment to correct the possible advantage.  If that has happened, and the process has been followed, then what next?  Either it didn't work, or it should be accepted.  Key there is simply disclosing it, and if that were to happen, I'd encourage people to accept the treatment and the IAAF decision.   As it stands, we don't know, so how can anyone be asked be blindly accept it?

If there was no treatment, or if the treatment has not been monitored properly, well, that's a different situation, and goes all the way back to 2009 and the debates we had about eligibility at the time.  And so I'd also love for there to be some kind of disclosure so that people at least know that this has happened (if it has, of course).  And finally, I'd hope that Semenya opens up, maybe that someone saves her from her own management team, and maybe even uses this as an opportunity to inform and educate.  Full transparency, testosterone levels, the truth.

Ross

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 01, 2011

IAAF World Champs: USA's hat-trick on a day of surprises

IAAF World Champs report Day 6:  The USA claim three on a day of surprises

Six finals, and four nations won medals today, as the USA delivered a hat-trick of titles in what was a day of mild (and big) surprises.

The USA's medals came in the form of Jesse Williams in the high jump (least surprising - he was the world leader after all), Lashinda Demus in the 400m hurdles (mildly surprising, though she was second in Berlin and is a class act, always competitive), and then Jennifer Barringer-Simpson, in the biggest surprise of all, in the women's 1500m in a very peculiar race.

Also claiming gold were Ezekiel Kemboi of Kenya (Steeplechase), Dai Greene of Great Britain (400m hurdles) and Olha Saladuha of Ukraine in the triple-jump.

A short summary of the track finals is below, along with YouTube clips of some, for those who missed them!

Kemboi explodes, celebrates and entertains for Kenya's fourth gold

Ezekiel Kemboi of Kenya defended his 3000m steeplechase world title with an incredible explosion of speed in the final 200m, opening up such a huge lead that he actually won the race in lane 7 by the end.  The sprint was on after a slow race, yet Kemboi got so far clear that he had time to celebrate pretty much from the final barrier, and drifted out into lane 7 doing so!  Brimin Kipruto got silver, holding off a fasting finishing Mahiedine Mekhissi-Benabbad on the line.

This was always going to be a fascinating race.  Earlier in the year, France's Benabbad had delivered a huge warning to Kenya that their dominance in the Steeplechase would be challenged in a big way in Daegu, when he ran away from a strong field, including Kemboi, to win the Paris Diamond League event.  On that occasion, Benabbad ran 8:02, and won by five seconds from Kemboi, and it was a performance that gave the Daegu final an added dimension - not only would it see great competition, but it might bring out a great tactical battle.

Kenya, of course, had four athletes in the race, by virtue of the fact that Kemboi was defending champion.  The other was Brimin Kipruto, who had missed the world record by 1/100th of a second earlier this season, having been led by Paul Koech in a great Diamond League race in Monaco.  Koech had been left out of this race, and so it was expected to be a Kipruto-Kemboi battle against Benabbad.  And given Benabbad's great finish in that Paris race (he put five seconds on the field in the final lap), I fully expected Kenya to send one of their two "lesser" runners out and make this a super fast race, given that Kipruto and Kemboi had run 7:55 or faster earlier this year.

That didn't happen. Then again, Bennabad didn't seem to be quite as strong as he had been in Paris, because he ran the whole race about 5m off the Kenyans, never in among them, which was surprising.  The early pace was set by Ramolefi, but it was slow - 2:47 to the first kilometer.  That was followed by 2:46, by which time the east Africans (three Kenyans and two Ugandans) were in front, and Benabbad and Tahri, also of France, just behind.  Down the back-straight, it was Kemboi and Kipruto who went clear, and only a massive late charge by Bennabad got him bronze, and in truth, he nearly caught Kipruto from behind (when you watch the video below, look at how far behind Benabbad is coming into the final straight, and watch how close he comes to catching Kipruto - he makes up about 2 seconds in 80m!  That kind of speed was however "wasted", and Benabbad, in my opinion, ran a strange race to allow that gap to appear in the first place.  I was surprised that he wasn't more attentive throughout the race, given his Paris victory and his obvious speed)

But Kemboi was untouchable today.  He was beaten into second by Kipruto in that Monaco race, running 7:55.76, but this was a championship race, and he has been remarkable in medal races in the last eight years.  Here is the list of performances:  2nd in 2003 World Champs, 1st 2004 Olympics, 2nd 2005 World Champs, 1st 2006 Commonwealth Games, 2nd 2007 World Champs, 1st 2009 World Champs and 2nd 2010 Commonwealth Games.  The only blemish was a 7th in Beijing, but other than that, Kemboi has been a 'guaranteed' silver or gold!

The video below shows the final 500m and watch for the Kemboi kick as they clear the third-last barrier at the end of the back straight.  It's so good, as mentioned, that he had time to start celebrating after the final jump, 50m from the line.  He danced over the line, and continued to celebrate, stripping off the vest and dancing, perhaps the Kenyan equivalent of Usain Bolt's "chicken dance" from Beijing!  Kemboi is a great entertainer, the sport needs it.  In all, it was a magnificent performance - that final 200m was as impressive a sprint as anything I've seen.

In case you missed it, here is a clip (not English, but the quality is the best I could find on YouTube now).  It really is worth a watch.



Jennifer Barringer-Simpson wins the 1500m title

The biggest surprise came from Jenny Barringer Simpson, who won gold in the women's 1500m in what was a strange race for a number of reasons.  For one, none of the favourites came through.  A fall with 550m unfortunately took out one of those favourites, Morgan Uceny of the USA.  Even more strange was that the big favourite, Maryan Jamal of Bahrain, began drifting away from the front of the race as early as 450m to go, was completely out of contention with 250m to go, and trailed in last place, fully 17 seconds behind the winner.  And yes, she shut down once out of contention, but her "challenge" was notable because, well, it was completely non-existent in the final 300m (she was seemingly bumped with about 450m to go, and perhaps that affected her finish.  She certainly has developed a habit of producing massively inconsistent performances though)

The USA would have had high hopes for this race, but most of them were with Uceny, who had been winning Diamond League races this season.  Barringer-Simpson was, not to be unkind, "the other American", though her 1500m credentials are impressive, including a sub-4 PB back in 2009.  It's jsut that she hadn't really showed that kind of form this year.  And so when Uceny went down in a pretty spectacular tumble with 550m to go, it seemed that the USA's chances took a drastic turn for the worse.

Not according to Barringer-Simpson - she ran a perfect race, always in contention, avoiding the barging and congestion that comes with a slow pace.  She moved out into lane two with about 150m to run, and as the final straight unfolded, she was right there, with clear track in front of her, and she took advantage.  Hannah England was a strong (and delightedly surprised) second, and Natalia Rodriguez of Spain (another pre-race favourite) faded somewhat having led into the final straight to come third.

In the end, the pace was slow, which made it all the more peculiar.  The first lap was 68.78, followed by a 65.16, leading to the congestion that would ultimately end Uceny's challenge in the fall.  The pace was ramped up with 500m to go, when Rodriguez went to the front.  She led through the bell, and all the way to about 40m to go, when Barringer-Simpson swept by. 

The final 300m were covered in about 46s, which is fast, but not spectacular - final laps of under 60 seconds have been run before (sub 45s for final 300m), off more or less the same pace.  But in the end, it was a race of attrition, a wide open race to begin with, that opened up repeatedly during the final, and Barringer-Simpson was there, deservedly, to move through and claim gold.  The race is below if you missed it



Men's 400m hurdles - Dai Greene for Great Britain

Great Britain have had a good, though perhaps slightly disappointing World Champs until tonight.  They would have been very positive about their chances for gold with Jessica Ennis in the heptathlon and Mo Farah in the 10,000m, but ended up with silver instead.

Tonight would have rectified their predictions somewhat - first came Hannah England's silver in the 1500m (surely an unexpected medal), and then Dai Greene delivered by claiming the men's 400m hurdles gold with a storming final 80m.  It's perhaps not a huge surprise - Greene was always going to be in contention, and looked strong in the semi-finals, but he was not an overwhelming favourite.  He beat Javier Culson into silver, while LJ van Zyl of South Africa claimed bronze, holding off a fast finishing Felix Sanchez.  Bershawn Jackson and Angelo Taylor finished sixth and seventh, which is significant because it's the first World Championships since 2001 where a medal has not gone to the USA in the event.  Greene's medal also has historical significance - it's the first medal for GBR in the event since 1991!

The time was also relatively slow - 48.27s.  There was some wind, of course, but it's interesting to note that this was the slowest winning time in the 400m hurdles in the history of the World Championships, dating back to 1983.  The 400m hurdles has been this way all season, in fact - since LJ van Zyl's world leader back in April, very few sub-48s performances have been seen.  Like the women's 1500m, the 400m hurdles is wide open leading into London.

Women's 400m hurdles - Demus runs a perfect race

"Slow" is not a word you'd use to describe the women's 400m hurdles final.  In fact, it was the third fastest race in history, as Lashinda Demus of the USA picked up the gold with a brilliant 52.47 performance, holding off Melaine Walker, the Jamaican defending champion who started out in Lane 8 as a result of her relatively poor semi-final performance.

Walker had a great race, actually, running a season's best of 52.73s (anything sub-53s is rare - only 15 women in history have done it), but Demus was just better.  They raced into the final hurdle together, Demus slightly ahead, but Demus had the stride pattern perfect, hit the hurdle at speed, and extended the margin to win, improving on her silver from Berlin two years ago.  The race is below


Justin Verlander should win the American League MVP

September 12, 2011 – Andrew Martin
Okay, I’ll admit it.
I’m starting to come around on Justin Verlander and his case for American League Most Valuable Player. Not too long ago I sneered in the face of popular opinion and proclaimed that Curtis Granderson was going to win the MVP over WAR darling Jose Bautista. Since then I have come to the realization that I need to re-evaluate my initial stance and give credit where credit is due.
My epiphany is that Justin Verlander has to be the American League MVP. He is on pace for a 25-6 record, 2.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 263 strikeouts in 259 innings; not to mention a no hitter, and a couple of other games where he took a no-no into the late innings. He leads the league in pitching wins, ERA, and strikeouts, making him on pace to win the pitcher’s version of the Triple-Crown. His season is reminiscent of the amazingly dominant year Pedro Martinez had in 1999 that should have garnered an MVP, but was left off some ballots because he was a pitcher. It is time to make sure that the same mistake doesn’t happen again.
The playoff bound Tigers are 23-8 (including 21-4 in the last 25) in games that Verlander has started, and 61-54 in all other contests. The next best starter for Detroit has been Max Scherzer, who has not exactly blown hitters away this year with his 4.27 ERA. It is reasonable to speculate that without Verlander, the Tigers would go from their current 10.5 game lead in the American League Central to possibly being out of the playoff picture altogether.
People who debate the MVP awards typically fall into specific camps. There are those who believe that the award should go to the best player, regardless if their team has a winning record. Then there are some who rely primarily on advanced stats like WAR to tell them who has been the most valuable. And finally there are others who are willing to consider any candidate for MVP as long as their position is not pitcher. This last camp often say that pitchers have the Cy Young Award, and since they only play in a portion of all the team’s games, they should not be eligible for the MVP. I have participated in the thinking of all the aforementioned groups in the past, but I declare today that I was wrong.
With all the hyperbole surrounding the award in each league every year, the fact that there are no hard and fast rules about eligibility seem to be forgotten. The award is designed to go to the most outstanding player regardless of position or level of WAR. There is no metric that needs to be adhered to when determining a winner. Simply, those who vote are supposed to choose who they believe was the best in the respective leagues.
Jose Bautista has had a wonderful season, and so have the other primary candidates, like Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson. However, the Blue Jays aren’t even close to sniffing the playoffs, and it is likely that the Red Sox and Yankees would still be in contention without the services of their candidates. That leaves Verlander. His combination of dominance with the high probability that the Tigers would have done well to finish at .500 without him, make him my definition of MVP.
I hate changing my mind once I have gone on the recordp, but I am also not too proud to do so if the situation demands it. I kept Verlander at bay when making my initial MVP picks because I assumed that he would make some sort of late season swoon like some pitchers are apt to do. After all, the Tigers have ridden him like a show pony all season, piling up the innings and the pitch counts. I also told myself that Verlander playing in just 1/5 of his team’s games made him ineligible.
Verlander turned my assumptions on their head by actually getting better as the season has gone along. He has won ten consecutive starts, and has pitched at least six innings in every start he has made this year; a major assist to a team that relies heavily on its bullpen in just about every other game.
The MVP award should be determined by voters who use their heart, their head, and their eyes. Verlander has not only been the most consistently excellent, but he is also in all likelihood the one player most integral to his team’s playoff plans. Despite the rest of Detroit’s roster not being as accomplished as other playoff teams, they have more than a puncher’s chance to make some noise in the postseason because of the man who should be the American League MVP.

Andrew Martin appreciates and writes about all aspects of baseball and its history at his blog, The Baseball Historian. You can also follow him on Twitter at @RedSoxFanNum1.
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Interview with Colorado Rockies’ prospect Chad Bettis

September 9, 2011 – Andrew Martin
The Colorado Rockies have traditionally had a difficult time developing successful pitchers. This has partly been luck in drafting, and partly because of the inability of many pitchers to adapt to the atmosphere of Denver. Regardless, the Rockies continue to try and find as much pitching talent as possible, and have some intriguing young arms coming up through their minor league system.
One of the most highly anticipated pitching prospects for Colorado is right-handed starter Chad Bettis. He was originally drafted by the Astros out of high school in the 8th round of the 2007 MLB draft, but chose to attend Texas Tech, which ended up being an excellent decision.
Bettis started some games with the Red Raiders, but was most effective as the team’s closer. In his senior year in 2010, he went 7-4 with 10 saves, striking out 102 of the 344 batters he faced. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Rockies pegged him as a starter when they selected him in the 2nd round of the 2010 MLB draft.
The reason the Rockies envision Bettis as a starter is because of his above average fastball, which can reach the mid to upper 90’s. He also has a good breaking ball and good control. So far he has not let the Rockies down, posting an 18-6 record with a 2.70 ERA over his first two professional seasons. He has also averaged a little better than a strikeout per inning during that time, increasing his numbers with each level he has climbed.
Now that the Rockies have traded Ubaldo Jimenez, their starting rotation is in dire need of an ace. Bettis is making an excellent case to be that pitcher, and could be in the majors by the end of next year if he continues to develop at the same pace he has his first two years. His emergence could be the key to Colorado making it back to playoff contention, so he will continue to be closely monitored as he dominated minor league competition.

CHAD BETTIS INTERVIEW

Who was your favorite team and player when you were growing up, and why?
My favorite team was watching the Yankees play. They went about their business the right way. They expected greatness from their teammates and themselves. I loved the mentality that Nolan Ryan had, and that’s definitely how I try to pitch today. Also, Cal Ripken Jr., one of the best players of all time. He went about his business the right way and never complained if he was hurt or sick; something we don’t see a lot these days.
What type of pitches do you throw?
I throw a four-seam and two-seam fastball, also a four-seam and two-seam changeup, a curveball, and cutter.
What made you decide to not sign in 2007, and go to school instead?
It’s a much longer story than this, but it’s because the Astros and myself could not come to terms.
How did you first become aware that the Rockies were interested in you?
I honestly didn’t think they were one of the teams that was going to pick me. I didn’t even know they were that interested until they picked me. But this is a great organization to be in and happy to be a part of the Rockies.
What was a fun thing you did for yourself or your family after you signed?
We had a little family party at my parents house. Then I was off to sign and get though the physicals, and head off for my first professional year.
What is the strangest thing you have seen a teammate do to keep from being bored on the bus rides between games?
I haven’t really seen anything to strange yet, but I’m sure I will one day.

Andrew Martin appreciates and writes about all aspects of baseball and its history at his blog, The Baseball Historian. You can also follow him on Twitter at @RedSoxFanNum1.
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Baseball’s American League Rookie of the Year Candidates

September 5, 2011 – Andrew Martin
AL MVP | NL MVP | AL ROY | NL ROY
The American League ROY race is a lot closer than what is going on in the National League. Not only have they had more ballyhooed rookies, but they have produced at a higher level as well. The crop of rookies who have become regular players this season are one of the more impressive infusions of talent in recent memory. If all things were equal, and they had all received consistent playing time during this season, the outcome of the award would likely have been different.
Unfortunately, free agency and reliance on subpar veterans often delays the arrival of rookies. Jennings, Ackley, and Lawrie all should have probably spent the entire season in the majors, but that’s not what happened. Even so, there were a number of rookies who did play the bulk of the year with their big league team, and forced their way into the conversation about the American League ROY.
 Toronto Blue Jays 1B Eric Hosmer
As the 2011 season got underway and Hosmer hit like Roy Hobbs in the minors, baseball started to clamber for his debut. The Royals haven’t had a star position player since Carlos Beltran, and the sweet swinging lefty first baseman looked like the next big thing. Thus, it was with great fanfare when he came to Kansas City in May.
Hosmer has been solid, but not spectacular with the Royals. He is on pace to finish the season with a .283 batting average, 17 home runs, and 72 RBI. Those are very solid numbers for a 21 year-old, and give the team the belief that they have a blossoming star in their lineup finally.
Hitting against lefties is where Hosmer has struggled, posting a .544 OPS and 9 RBI in 121 at bats. Those numbers given him extreme platoon splits, and he will need to improve to be considered a complete player. As it stands, he has performed admirably in his first season with the Royals, and is one of the finest rookies in the American League.
 New York Yankees SP Ivan Nova
The big question mark for the Yankees coming into the season was their starting pitching. Besides C.C. Sabathia, the New York rotation was a series of question marks and retreads. Surprisingly, Nova has been the glue that has held the starting pitching together, and allowed the Yankees to be in the hunt for first place in the American League East all year long.
Nova did encounter a little bump around mid-season, where he graciously accepted a brief demotion to the minors. He returned better than ever, and has helped keep the Yankees at the top of any playoff conversation. He is on pace to end the season with a 18-5 record and 3.89 ERA. In particular, he has been a stopper on the road, with an 8-2 record and 3.34 ERA.
He does not strike out a lot of hitters, with just 85 in 138.2 innings. Not missing many bats is an indication that he has had some luck on his side, but has plenty of room for improvement. You would be hard pressed to find anyone who predicted this kind of success for Nova before the season began, and he is not only a top rookie, but one of the most important players on the Yankees.
 Los Angeles Angels 1B Mark Trumbo
Baseball fans like home runs, and for that reason, Trumbo has gotten a lot of momentum going lately in support of his American League ROY candidacy. He is a very good young player with a lot of potential, but he should not win this award. While he is on pace to finish the year with 29 home runs and 89 RBI, he is also slotted to finish with a .256 batting average and a .295 OBP. A ROY winner cannot have an OBP that glaringly low.
Trumbo has also not fully developed as a defensive first baseman, although he has not made a total scene either. It may sounds like I am bashing him, but I’m not. I actually like him a lot as a player. It just needs to be stated that while he has put up nice numbers in some categories, he has not done enough to garner serious consideration for the ROY.
 Seattle Mariners SP Michael Pineda
Pineda burst out of the gate to start the season, much to the surprise of most around baseball. Pineda’s talents were widely known, but his immediate success was unexpected because his young age (22). The massive right-handed pitcher carved up baseball during the first two months of the season, going 6-2 with a 2.42 ERA. He has slowed considerably since then, with a 3-7 record and 4.64 ERA since June 1st.
Pineda has put up big strikeout numbers, 163 in 159 innings, and also posted an impressive 1.09 WHIP. He also looks like he will assist King Felix in manning the Mariner starting rotation for years to come. Unfortunately, his uneven performance will likely reduce some of the ROY votes he may have received otherwise. Despite this, he has had an impressive rookie campaign and looks to be one of the next stars of the game.
 Tampa Bay Rays SP Jeremy Hellickson
I had to look twice when compiling my list of ROY candidates. I could have sworn that Hellickson was no longer rookie-eligible, but to my surprise, he is. He may have rookie status, but he has pitched like a veteran all season with Tampa Bay. Mined from the seemingly bottomless pool of Tampa Bay minor league talent, he has anchored one of the starting rotation spots since breaking camp with the team out of Spring Training.
Hellickson is probably the most polished of all the rookie pitchers. He has gone 12-10 so far this year, with a 2.90 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 164.1 innings. A. His 1.13 WHIP is also impressive for someone his age. Tampa Bay is not in the hunt for the playoffs this season, but with young cheap talent like Hellickson, they will be in the picture for the immediate future.
Honorable Mention: Honorable Mention: Aaron Crow, Ben Revere, Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings, Dustin Ackley, Tyler Chatwood, Zach Britton.

AND THE WINNER IS…

If Tampa Bay had called up Jennings before June, instead of letting Sam Fuld hold down left field for a month longer than he should have, the American League ROY would belong to him. However, with less than 175 at bats, he simply has not done enough to merit the award.
Ivan Nova has produced in the most high pressure situation, being an integral component of the Yankees’ drive to the playoffs. However, outside of wins, he has not posted overwhelming numbers, and has had some ups and downs. He has saved his best for the end of the season, but at this point has not done enough to be the ROY winner.
The player who deserves to win the American League ROY is Jeremy Hellickson. He has pitched consistently all season long, and while he doesn’t have the same win totals as Nova, or the strikeout totals of Pineda, he has been better overall than them, or any of the other rookies. His ERA is also a full run lower per game than Nova, and his other peripheral numbers indicate that he has not only been the best rookie in the American League in 2011, but he has been one of the top starting pitchers in all of baseball.
Detractors may point to Hellickson’s won-loss record being near .500 as why he shouldn’t win the award, but that is a bad argument. ROY winners are those who have produced the best and the most, both of which apply to Hellickson. He has out-produced the entire field of impressive rookies, and at the end of the season he will take home the American League ROY award.

Andrew Martin appreciates and writes about all aspects of baseball and its history at his blog, The Baseball Historian. You can also follow him on Twitter at @RedSoxFanNum1.
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Baseball’s National League Rookie of the Year Candidates

September 1, 2011 – Andrew Martin
AL MVP | NL MVP | AL ROY | NL ROY
The 2011 National League Rookie of the Year race has been one of the most regional in recent memory. For some reason, the stars aligned and the majority of candidates for the award are in the NL East, with three frontrunners playing for the Atlanta Braves. The top contenders for National League ROY have each brought unique production to their respective teams, and look to be impact players for years to come. As the season winds down, a definitive pecking order has emerged in the ROY competition, and I have been able to determine who will end up winning the award, and who will come up short.
 Atlanta Braves 1B Freddie Freeman
Leading up to 2011, Freeman was a prized prospect in the Braves’ minor league system, but always regarded at a notch below that of golden boy Jason Heyward. Heyward finished second in the 2010 National League ROY voting and was expected to do great things this year, but has suffered through an injury and regression-filled 2011. Into the void stepped Freeman, who most felt would have a solid, but unspectacular season if given regular playing time.
Freeman has been exactly what was expected. He has played solid defense, and is on pace to finish the season at .291 with 22 home runs and 78 RBI. Those are solid, yet unspectacular numbers, but exactly what the Braves need, with their offense being ravaged by injuries and underachievement. At 21 years old, Freeman is already one of the most consistent producers on the Braves, and a major reason why they are poised to be in the playoffs. He has played like a veteran all year long, a hallmark of a top rookie.
 New York Mets SP Dillon Gee
Starting pitching has been a black hole for the New York Mets in recent years, but they may have started to turn a corner with the young talent they have developed, starting with Mike Pelfrey and Jonathan Niese, and now Gee.
It feels like the right-handed Gee has gone under the radar for much of the year, which is due more to the Mets suffering another disappointing season, than the results he has produced. He is currently on pace for a 14-6 record and 4.37 ERA, numbers of a very solid three or four starter. He does not strike out a ton of guys, but has a decent 1.30 WHIP and keeps the ball in the park, giving up just 13 home runs so far this year. He has been a bright spot on the otherwise bland Mets.
 Atlanta Braves SP Brandon Beachy
The close National League ROY race would be even tighter if Beachy had not suffered injuries earlier in the year. As it is, he is still in the conversation because of his excellent rookie season. He is on pace to finish the season with a 9-2 record, 3.31 ERA, and 156 strikeouts in 139.1 innings.
If he had pitched the entire year, the outcome of this award may have been very different, but Beachy won’t win the award because his numbers won’t be significant enough because of time missed. However, he has produced veteran results this year, and shown that the Braves have another exciting pitcher in their rotation.
 Atlanta Braves RP Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel has pitched so well this season at Atlanta’s closer that it is easy to forget that he is just a 23 year old rookie. The right-handed pitcher has dominated from the beginning, anchoring the Atlanta bullpen, which is the strength of their team.
Kimbrel is on pace to finish 2011 with 49 saves and a 1.79 ERA in 70 games. Most impressively, he projects to finish with 125 strikeouts in 77.2 innings. His strikeouts have come from a fastball that has averaged a little over 95 MPH this season, and a biting slider that hitters have a hard time laying off. Atlanta has enjoyed a successful season despite glaring holes on their roster, because if they can get into their bullpen with a lead, the game is typically over. Kimbrel is not only a strong contender for the National League ROY, but also for the title of best closer in baseball.
 Washington Nationals 2B Danny Espinosa
On first thought, many people might wonder what Espinosa and his .231 batting average is doing on the short list. Closer inspection shows that he is a serious candidate for ROY. Although he had 103 at bats with the Nationals last year, he still qualifies as a rookie, and is in serious contention for ROY.
The switch-hitting Espinosa leads all National League rookies with a 3.0 WAR according to FanGraphs. He has done a little bit of everything for Washington this year. No Gold Glover, he has been a serviceable second baseman, after switching from shortstop to accommodate fellow youngster teammate Ian Desmond. Espinosa is also on pace for 22 home runs, 70 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. As with many switch-hitters, he has shown more power from the left side and better batting average from the right. He has been a bright spot in an otherwise mediocre season for Washington, and on figures to get better going forward.
Honorable Mention: Darwin Barney, John Mayberry, Jr., Josh Collmenter, Vance Worley.

AND THE WINNER IS…

The National League has seen a number of exciting young players burst on to the scene in 2011. However, only one of them has been a true star this season, and that is why Craig Kimbrelis the clear cut choice for ROY. Pitching in the 9th inning for a playoff contender can be a steep challenge for a pitcher of any age, but Kimbrel has made it look easy, mowing down hitters with his electric stuff. He is not only having a great rookie season, but an all-time great year for a closer.
While the other rookies in contention for ROY still clearly have room for improvement, it is hard to imagine Kimbrel being much better than he has already been. For him, sustaining his success will be key, because that will allow him to lead the Atlanta bullpen into the future. He has had an excellent start to his career and what he has accomplished so far gives everyone a great idea of what he is capable of down the road.

Andrew Martin appreciates and writes about all aspects of baseball and its history at his blog, The Baseball Historian. You can also follow him on Twitter at @RedSoxFanNum1.
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Baseball’s National League MVP Frontrunners

August 26, 2011 – Andrew Martin
AL MVP | NL MVP | AL ROY | NL ROY
The National League MVP race is coming down to a thrilling conclusion, similar to what is happening in the junior circuit. Most exciting is that most of the frontrunners are young players, just coming into their primes. These players have each made compelling cases as to why they should have a new trophy on their mantel after the season is over. Although it is a difficult task, I believe that after evaluating all the stats and evidence, I have been unable to uncover who will win the National League MVP.
 Arizona Diamondbacks OF Justin Upton
Upton is the best player on the surprising first place Arizona Diamondbacks. Even though it seems like he has been playing forever, the outfielder is still just 24 years old, and seemingly improving with each passing season. He has anchored the young Arizona offense, which besides Willie Bloomquist, has no regulars over the age of 30.
Upton leads Arizona in batting average, hits, runs, home runs, RBI, steals, OPS, and just about every other offensive category one can imagine. He has developed the maturity as a player that many are still waiting on from his brother BJ. Justin also leads the National League in WAR, showing that his value is not just to Arizona, but that he truly is one of the best players in baseball.
 Los Angeles Dodgers OF Matt Kemp
It is interesting to note that Kemp closely mirrors Upton in the way he has matured as a player. Last year Kemp put up disappointing numbers, and received the most recognition for dating Rihanna. He seemed to be on the verge of becoming a break-out star, but was never able to quite put it all together until 2011.
This season, Kemp has finally exploded into a superstar. He is hitting .322, and is on pace to possibly become baseball’s fifth ever 40-40 player. He plays good defense in the outfield, and has finally become the complete package that so many envisioned when he first debuted with the Dodgers in 2006.
Known for his distractions, it is thus with irony that Kemp has achieved what he has this season in Los Angeles. The contentious McCourt divorce has made baseball anything but the focus in Dodger-land. Although the Dodgers are not in serious playoff contention this year, the way that Kemp has produced and held the team together, while keeping them respectably competitive is worthy of serious MVP consideration.
 Milwaukee Brewers OF Ryan Braun
It seems like Braun makes an annual case for the most underappreciated player in baseball. Every year he has been in the majors, he has consistently put up MVP numbers, while going relatively unnoticed in Milwaukee. This year has been no different, as he is on pace for 31 home runs and 36 stolen bases, to go along with his .330 batting average.
Braun will never be accused of being a Gold Glove defender, but his subpar defense is hidden in left field by the Brewers, who have coasted through the second half of the season in first place in the Central Division. He is as consistent a player that exists in baseball, and is a major reason why the Brewers are looking to make some noise in the upcoming playoffs.
 Milwaukee Brewers 1B Prince Fielder
In his contract year, Fielder has done his best to convince possible suitors that he will provide a lot of bang for the buck. Although they may not be able to re-sign him, the Brewers have benefitted this season from Fielder proving his value. He has kept his batting average in the neighborhood of .300 all year, and is on pace to end the year with 34 home runs and 123 RBI.
Like Braun, Fielder is a below average defender, at first base. He uses his offense as a way to mask that deficiency, and so far this year, it has worked, given the Brewer’s commanding lead. It is likely the Fielder will lose MVP votes to Braun, as they have both been leaders on a first place team. Regardless, the season Fielder is having deserves to be part of this discussion.
 Atlanta Braves C Brian McCann
Before I go any further, I will unequivocally state that McCann will not win the MVP. That being said, he definitely deserves to be part of the conversation about the frontrunners for the award. The Atlanta catcher has been the foundation of the team’s offense this year, on pace for a .292 batting average and 27 home runs; numbers that make him the best catcher in baseball.
The Braves hold a commanding lead in the National League wild card despite Chipper Jones’ ongoing frailty, and the unexpected regression of Jason Heyward. Dan Uggla has probably been the Atlanta hitter in the news the most because of his 33 game hitting streak and 30 home runs, but he is still only hitting .231 with a .302 OPB on the year.
McCann has improved over his career to become a slightly below average defensive catcher, but his true value to the Braves has been in becoming the veteran influence that has been so important for previous teams. Symbolically, the baton has been passed from Jones to McCann within the past year or so, and McCann has helped the team keep pace with its winning ways, as another playoff season seems sure to be on the horizon.
Honorable Mention: Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Roy Halladay, and Troy Tulowitzki.

AND THE WINNER IS…

Originally I was leaning towards Ryan Braun for the MVP, but after reviewing all the evidence, my selection for the National League frontrunner turns out to be Justin Upton. You simply can’t ignore his production, which has not only carried his first place team, but also placed him statistically at the start of any conversation about best player in the National League.
Young teams like Arizona need players to move from kid status to veteran, in order to become true contenders. It certainly like Upton has made that jump, and Arizona is poised to see what they can do come playoff time. He is carrying the team, and come the end of the year, he will likely be adding the National League MVP to his trophy case.

Andrew Martin appreciates and writes about all aspects of baseball and its history at his blog, The Baseball Historian. You can also follow him on Twitter at @RedSoxFanNum1.
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Baseball’s American League MVP Frontrunners

August 24, 2011 – Andrew Martin
AL MVP | NL MVP | AL ROY | NL ROY
As the home stretch to the playoffs approached, it is time to start thinking about the individual player awards. In particular, the American League MVP race has been tight all year, with no clear-cut candidate having completely separated themselves from the pack. Fortunately, I have evaluated the evidence and determined the current frontrunner for the award.
Toronto Blue Jays 3B/OF Jose Bautista
The label of “best player in baseball” has been bandied about quite a bit this year in conjunction with Bautista’s name. He has followed up a shocking 2010 season with numbers that have even exceeded those totals. He currently leads the American League in home runs, WAR, walks, and OPS; throwing in a .316 batting average for good measure.
Cynics might point to Toronto hovering around the .500 mark the whole year as a reason why Bautista does not deserve the MVP, but that line of reasoning is wrong. He is currently the most dominant position player in baseball, and does everything he can on a daily basis to help his team win.
 Boston Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia
The diminutive Pedroia looks more like a pizza delivery guy than he does a ballplayer, but make no mistake about it, he has game. He is not only the vocal leader of the Red Sox, but his incredible versatility is what ties his team together. He has played Gold Glove caliber defense, hit over .300 with some pop, and even stolen 24 bases, in proving that he is the most complete second baseman in all of baseball.
Despite lacking intimidation, Pedroia has even batted cleanup on a number of occasions this year, producing a 1.040 OPS in 11 games in the four-spot. He produces whenever and wherever the Red Sox ask him. Quite simply, he is Boston’s heart and soul, and a major reason why they are hurtling towards a 100 win season, despite their rough first few weeks of the year.
 New York Yankees OF Curtis Granderson
I have always seen Granderson as one of the nicest guys in baseball, and while I was happy to see his quick start to the 2011 season, I never thought he would sustain it as long as he has. Not only has he kept up his pace, he seems to have increased it as of late.
125 games into the season, Granderson is on pace to finish 2011 with 45 home runs, 127 RBI, 31 stolen bases, and 148 runs scored. He is the bargain priced heart of a potent offense, renowned for its expensive parts. With New York having to deal with the public decline of core players like Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada, Granderson has been a major driving force in keeping the team at the top of the standings all year.
 Boston Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury
The Red Sox have enjoyed a typical Carl Crawford season this year. Unfortunately it has not come from Crawford, who they paid 142 million dollars this past off-season, but rather from Ellsbury. Crawford will probably be fine down the road, but the improvement of Ellsbury has to be quite a pleasant surprise for Boston.
Ellsbury has rebounded marvelously from a disastrous 2010, where he missed the majority of the season with injuries, and even had his own teammates doubting his heart. He has not only significantly upped his power, but he has maintained high stolen base numbers, hit over .300 for most of the year, and turned in very good glove work in center field. He has been the catalyst at the top of the order for Boston’s big boppers, and allowed Crawford to be shifted around to work out his own issues, without as much pressure as would normally be expected. Right now, Ellsbury might very well be the most complete player in the American League.
 Detroit Tigers SP Justin Verlander
Traditional thought, whether it is accurate or not, dictate that pitchers shouldn’t be eligible for the MVP since they have the Cy Young Award. Anyone who may subscribe to that theory certainly has to be reconsidering after seeing the season that Verlander is having.
Verlander is in serious contention for the pitching Triple Crown, leading the league in wins and strikeouts, and currently only 0.18 behind Jered Weaver in ERA. He is also on pace for 267 innings, a staggering amount in today’s era of babying pitchers. His dominance also includes a no-hitter and a couple of near misses.
The consistency of Verlander in the Detroit starting rotation helped overcome a strong start by the Cleveland Indians, and catapulted Detroit into first place in the Central Division. He ensures that the Tigers will never endure a long losing streak, and is the main reason why nobody is looking forward to facing them in the playoffs.
Honorable Mention: Adrian Gonzalez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jered Weaver, and Michael Young.

AND THE WINNER IS…

I honestly didn’t know who I was going to pick until I got to this point. I think going over each of the main candidates helped me come to the conclusion that Curtis Granderson has to be the current frontrunner for the American League MVP. He has made the giant machine that is the Yankees go, by putting up extraordinary run production numbers on a consistent basis all year.
Adding to Granderson’s impressive resume is how he has done it on baseball’s largest stage. In most years, the powerhouse Red Sox would be a runaway favorite to take any division, but the Yankees show no sign of letting up. The Yankees have experienced a number of distractions and injuries this year, but the team has hardly skipped a beat, in large part because of Granderson. He is having a career year at the best possible time, and deserves to be recognized as the MVP for his accomplishments.

Andrew Martin appreciates and writes about all aspects of baseball and its history at his blog, The Baseball Historian. You can also follow him on Twitter at @RedSoxFanNum1.
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Team-by-Team Analysis of National League Rookies

August 18, 2011 – Andrew Martin
Check out Andrew’s recap of the American League rookies here.
This entry is the second in a series highlighting the best rookies of 2011 who are most likely to have a major impact on their team in 2012. The National League is covered here, and much like the junior circuit, they have a number of excellent young players who could make quite a mark on their respective teams in 2012.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS – 1B PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT

Arizona has maintained their status as a young, up and coming team now for several seasons. Other than closer J.J. Putz, every significant player on the team is 30 or younger, and there have been a number of youngsters arriving on the scene, including right-handed slugger Goldschmidt.
The Diamondbacks offense has some nice pieces like Justin UptonStephen Drew, and Chris Young, but first base has been a position that has been lacking. Enter Goldschmidt, who hit 30 home runs in a half season in the minors, and owner of a 1.026 career minor league OPS. He will strike out a lot, but will also hit a ton of home runs, and has the ability to hit for pretty good average as well. He has already hit a couple of monster shots at the major league level over the past couple of weeks, and could very possibly be the lynchpin of the Arizona lineup in 2012.

ATLANTA BRAVES – 1B FREDDIE FREEMAN

With Chipper Jones nearing the end of his illustrious career, the Braves need a leader to take his place, both on the field and in the lineup. Jason Heyward is still going to be a star, but has not taken off in the way that many predicted. That leaves Freeman as the likeliest choice to assume the role next year.
Freeman is an excellent defensive first baseman, who was expected to be nothing more than a placeholder with the bat this year. Instead he is on pace to end the season with a .300 batting average and 20 home runs. Having already proven himself, it will be important for Freeman to at least repeat his performance in 2012, so the Braves can allow Heyward to continue to grow, and they don’t have to worry if Jones can stave off Father Time.

CHICAGO CUBS – OF TONY CAMPANA

It may not be a sexy pick, but Campana is the current Cubs rookie most likely to impact their 2012 season. Many believe that he is currently the fastest man in baseball, and that sort of tool can be a game changer in and of itself.
At a diminutive 5’8″, Campana never hit a minor league home run, but averaged close to a stolen base every two games. The Cubs don’t have another player like him on the roster, and he offers a great deal of versatility. He may not start in Chicago next year, but is a good bet to see plenty of time off the bench as an extra outfielder, pinch runner, and defensive replacement. His specific skill set should be very important to the Cubs as they seek to rise out of perpetual mediocrity.

CINCINNATI REDS – 1B/OF YONDER ALONSO

Alonso is obviously not going to be playing much first base in Cincinnati with the presence of last year’s MVPJoey Votto. However, he could give the team good value if he can transition to a corner outfield spot. The left-handed hitting Alonso has the tools to produce a high average, and is still developing his power. The Reds can afford to let him take some time to get used to the majors this year, because it looks like he may be counted on as a starter in 2012.

COLORADO ROCKIES – SP JUAN NICASIO

This pick is clouded with the recent horrific broken neck injury suffered by Nicasio. However, prior to that he had done enough to cement his spot in the 2012 Rockies rotation. The right-hander emerged from the minors this year to have a surprisingly effective rookie season. It remains to be seen if and when he will resume baseball activities, but if he is able to come back next year, he could be an important piece to the pitching staff, especially now that Ubaldo Jimenez was traded.

FLORIDA MARLINS – RP STEVE CISHEK

For a team as young as the Marlins, it is surprising that they have not relied on a number of impact rookies this season. Cishek, a lanky right-handed reliever, has been their best rookie in 2011. He is exceptional at nothing, but has produced solid results out of the bullpen. This will give the Marlins one less thing to think about in 2012, as they have a number of other holes that are dire need of being filled.

HOUSTON ASTROS – OF J.D. MARTINEZ

I have always liked Martinez, who flew under the radar of many prospect evaluators, despite putting up excellent minor league numbers, including a .342 career batting average.
Now that Houston has traded or sold away just about everything that wasn’t nailed down, they are in major rebuilding mode. In particular, their offense is in shambles, resembling something you might expect at Triple-A. This is a great opportunity for Martinez. A right-handed hitter, he has some pop, in addition to his ability to hit for average. Playing in a bandbox like Minutemaid Park will also help him, as he is a prime candidate to shoulder the Astros offense in 2012.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS – RP JOSH LINDBLOM

Although he was only recently called up, the right-handed Lindblom has pitched well out of the Los Angeles bullpen. The financial woes of the Dodgers could lead to them jettisoning some of their higher paid talent in the off-season, and one area that could be trimmed in the bullpen. If that happens, Lindblom could step up and assume a late inning role. He has not had any experience as a closer, but has the stuff to be an effective set-up man.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS – ???

Like their counterparts, the Texas Rangers, the Brewers have not had any rookies who have made significant contributions to their team this year. In what is likely to be Prince Fielder’s final season in a Milwaukee uniform, the Brewers went with a group of veterans in an effort to make a push for the playoffs. Unlike Texas, the Milwaukee farm system is not quite so fully stocked with talent, so it remains to be seen who the next rookie contributor will be for them.

NEW YORK METS – RP PEDRO BEATO

Most people outside of the New York area would be hard pressed to pick Beato out of a lineup, but he has become quite familiar to Mets fans this season with his steady work out of the bullpen.
Originally a first round pick of the Orioles, Beato was taken by New York this past offseason in the Rule 5 draft, and has been a pleasant surprise. He has had some up and down months, but overall has been one of the more consistent members of the Mets bullpen. With New York having a recent tradition of being thin in the pitching department, Beato will be counted upon to match or exceed his rookie season, in 2012.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES – SP VANCE WORLEY

There has been much ballyhoo about the celebrated Phillie starting rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt. However, Worley, who has manned the fifth spot for much of the season, has pitched just as well as his better known counterparts, in his rookie season.
The stocky right-hander was a third round pick in 2008, but never gave any sign in the minors that he would be as effective as he has been thus far. If he can roll over his success to 2012, he would give Philadelphia an All-Star possibility in every spot of their rotation. Worley taking the next step would also mean that opposing teams would not be able to have any days off against the Phillies, and make them even harder to beat, which is difficult to fathom given their status as World Series front runners.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES – C MICHAEL MCKENRY

To be clear, McKenry is never going to be a star, but he has the ability to be an average major league catcher, and that is good enough for many teams. McKenry has never been considered a top-flight prospect, but appeared in the national spotlight earlier this year for being involved in the most controversial play of the 2011 season.
Pittsburgh already has Ryan Doumit at catcher, but they could choose to trade him, or move him to another position. McKenry’s value comes more from his defensive skills, but he has kept his batting average in the vicinity of .250-.260 so far this season. McKenry has shown that the Pirates can feel comfortable handing him a starting job in 2012, and see what he can do with fulltime at bats.

SAN DIEGO PADRES – CORY LUEBKE

The Padres, always operating on a shoestring budget, seem to have finally found another frontline pitcher to pair in the rotation with Mat Latos. The left-handed Luebke started the season in the bullpen, but since moving to the starting rotation in late June, has been a revelation. He has averaged better than a strikeout per inning on the year, and seems to have gotten better as the season has gone on. For the Padres to compete in the tight-knit NL West, they will need to have good starting pitching, and Luebke should help provide that in 2012.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – 1B/OF BRANDON BELT

The handling of Belt at the major league level this year should be considered criminal. Despite having a weak offense, that was made all the less intimidating when Buster Posey suffered a season ending injury, the Giants have bounced Belt up and down from the minors all year.
Belt is a .343 career hitter in the minors, with good power, but because of his inability to get regular playing time in the majors, has yet to produce consistently with the Giants. That should change in 2012, as the Giants have let go of antiques like Pat Burrell, and will look to Belt to start and help transform their offense.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – RP LANCE LYNN

Selected in the first round of the 2008 MLB draft, Lynn was a starter in the minors, but has pitched well out of the Cardinal bullpen since making his debut in June. Possessing four average pitches, he has racked up a lot of strikeouts despite lacking a true out pitch.
Unfortunately Lynn was recently place on the disabled list, but it is with a minor injury. It remains to be seen if the Cardinals will use him in the bullpen or the starting rotation in 2012, but it seems to be a foregone conclusion that he will be on the team in some capacity.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS – C WILSON RAMOS

Much of the attention lavished on the Nationals early in the season was because of their mega expenditure on Jayson Werth during free agency — and how he subsequently has not come close to living up to his contract. One of the least appreciated and minimally paid Nats is Ramos, who has made big strides this season, and should be the undisputed starter in 2012.
Ramos came over to Washington last year in a trade from Minnesota. He has shared the position withJesus Flores, but has received the lion’s share of playing time. Flores seems to do everything well, but not great. He can play some defense, hit a little, and is capable of some power. That is all the Nats will need next year, as they have not had a starting catcher hit double digits in home runs since Brian Schneider hit 10 in 2005.
Much like the American League, the National League has an interesting crop of rookies in 2011. Many of them have come out of nowhere or exceeded previous expectations. Due to their production, their teams will look for them to take another step forward season.

Andrew Martin appreciates and writes about all aspects of baseball and its history at his blog, The Baseball Historian. You can also follow him on Twitter at @RedSoxFanNum1.
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Team-by-Team Analysis of American League Rookies

August 15, 2011 – Andrew Martin
Check out Andrew’s recap of the National League rookies here.
Sadly, the 2011 baseball season is hurtling towards its regular season conclusion. This season has seen a number of young players playing in their rookie campaigns. These rookies have had varying degrees of success, and many of them will be looked upon to become even more significant contributors in 2012. Their development may have a major impact on the success of their respective teams next year.
Just about every team has one rookie who could be a major part of their squad next year. I will break down one rookie from each American League team who I believe has the potential to have the greatest impact on their team in 2012. I will explore the National League candidates in a future entry.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES – SP ZACH BRITTON

Britton started out of the gate like a champion, but saw his results diminish as the season has progressed. He has struggled with injuries of late, and is currently on the 15 day disabled list.
The Orioles sorely need one of their young pitchers to step up and take the lead position in their rotation.Brian Matusz looks like a major question mark right now, so the next obvious candidate is the lefty Britton. He has an impressive arsenal of pitches, highlighted by his sinker, and is a good bet to take a major leap in production next season, if he can get healthy.

BOSTON RED SOX – OF JOSH REDDICK

Although he came within nine at bats last season of no longer being considered a rookie in 2011, but Reddick survived as my pick for Boston. The veteran Red Sox have given little playing time to any rookies this season, and while that essentially makes Reddick the default choice; I also believe that he is a player to watch for 2012.
J.D. Drew and his inflated contract and monotone expressions will undoubtedly not be resigned after this year, leaving a hole in right field. Boston may choose to pursue a free agent, and they also have another exciting young player in Ryan Kalish who has proven he can play as well. However, Reddick may end up being the choice. He has shown a much better batting eye this season, and at worst should expect to be a significant bench contributor next year.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX – RP CHRIS SALE

The lanky lefty drew the ire of skipper Ozzie Guillen, at the beginning of the year, for not being able to hold down the closer job. Since then, Sale has been dominant as a set-up man. He has averaged better than a strikeout an inning for the season, and has an ERA of 1.08 since June 1st. He should be a vital member of the Chicago bullpen once again in 2012, whether it is as their 8th inning man, or trying the closer position again if Sergio Santos falls out of favor.

CLEVELAND INDIANS – 2B JASON KIPNIS

Cleveland manager Manny Acta recently called Kipnis a “dirtbag,” but he meant it in the best possible way. Kipnis is a one of those players who fills up a stat sheet and invariably has a dirty uniform by the end of every game. He started his major league career with a bang, including having one stretch where he homered in four straight games. The Indians offense is slowly starting to rebuild, and Kipnis figures to be a big part of that, with Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera.

DETROIT TIGERS – RP AL ALBURQUERQUE

Prior to his recent concussion that forced him on to the disabled list; the right-handed Alburquerque had been one of the most underappreciated rookies in all of baseball. He seemingly came out of nowhere to be an important cog in the Detroit bullpen. His ability to get strikeouts (57 in 37 innings this season) makes him an excellent tool to bring into a game with men on base. Assuming he bounces back from his injury, Alburquerque should be part of the 2012 bullpen, an area where no team can ever have enough good arms.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS – RP AARON CROW

Most people probably expected I would give this spot to Eric Hosmer. I have no doubts that Hosmer will have an excellent season in 2012, but I feel that Crow could prove to be even more valuable. He has anchored a shaky Kansas City bullpen this year, serving as the setup man for Joakim Soria.
Soria has regressed noticeably from his All Star days, and with his high salary, is a candidate to be pitching elsewhere next year. If that were to happen, Crow would be the natural choice to step into the closer role. Regardless, on a team that has been bereft of good, solid pitching for years, Crow will have a prominent role in some form.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS – SP TYLER CHATWOOD

At the age of 21, Chatwood is one of the youngest players in the major leagues this year. He has been simply ordinary as a starter, but since he pitches at the end of the rotation, it is hard to expect any better from the youngster. It is encouraging to see how Chatwood has held his own all season, and there is nothing that should prevent him from being even better in 2012. With Jered WeaverDan Haren, and Ervin Santanaalready in place, Chatwood can continue to take his time to develop his final polish, and round out the Angel rotation.

MINNESOTA TWINS – OF BEN REVERE

Baseball insiders projected Revere as a plus defensive outfielder, with good speed, and slap hitting ability. He has shown exactly that since being summoned by the Twins earlier this season. Revere will likely be the Twins’ fourth outfielder in 2012, but has shown the ability to be a starter if he is needed to step into the role.
Revere’s skill set is similar to that of incumbent centerfielder Denard Span, but he still has a ways to develop at the major league level. The cost-conscious Twins will likely appreciate having a cheap talent like Revere around that they can plug into the lineup whenever the need arises.

NEW YORK YANKEES – SP IVAN NOVA

Nova may exceed the innings limit to be considered a rookie this year, but I am going to call him one anyways. He is close enough to qualifying that I am going to make an exception.
The winning ways of the Yankees often obscures the black hole that has been the back end of their starting rotation for the last several years. Nova was regarded as a good prospect, but I am sure the success he has enjoyed in 2011 has surprised even his most ardent supporters. With 11 wins thus far, he is clearly the team’s second best pitcher after C.C. Sabathia, and makes the least amount of money.
Nova will be given a rotation spot next year, and if he continues to develop, he could have a huge year. The Yankees offense is so good that most nights if Yankee starters allow three or four runs or less, they have a good chance of earning a win. Barring a significant pick-up in the offseason, Nova might enter 2012 with as high as the number two spot in the rotation.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS – RP FAUTINO DE LOS SANTOS

The bullpen has been the most consistent aspect of recent Oakland teams. While they have had an anemic offense, and a young starting rotation, their relievers have consistently been viewed amongst the best in the game. This year the A’s have added another weapon to that arsenal. De Los Santos is a fire-balling right-hander who was traded to Oakland along with Gio Gonzalez in 2008.
Although De Los Santos does struggle with his control, he is also capable of prodigious strikeout numbers. His emergence in the pen will either give the A’s one more option to use in 2012, or perhaps allow them to trade one of their more established relievers for a bat.

SEATTLE MARINERS – 2B DUSTIN ACKLEY

The Mariners’ offense has been weak for the past few years. Ichiro has been about the only dependable contributor, though even that has changed this season. Ackley has been on the lips of most Mariners fans since he was taken as the second overall selection in the 2009 MLB Draft, as a savior to turn the team’s offensive woes around.
Ackley’s bat has always been his most indisputable tool, but it was only this past year that his defensive position was finally set as second base. Since coming up to Seattle in mid-June, Ackley has hovered around the .300 mark, and shown good pop. If the Mariners want to turn things around, they will need Ackley to continue to develop and become a long term anchor of their offense.

TAMPA BAY RAYS – OF DESMOND JENNINGS

The Rays have played well in 2011, but are not at the same level they were the past few seasons. Budgetary constraints led to the team saying goodbye to team leaders like Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford. Fortunately, the Rays have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball, and have moved quickly to plug their holes with fresh talent.
Jennings is the most recent addition fresh off the farm. He is an outfielder who languished for what seemed to be forever in the minors, before finally getting called up last month. Jennings does a little of everything, from solid defense, to stolen bases, to surprising pop in his bat. He should be a clear cut starter in 2012, and is capable of putting up Crawford-esque numbers.

TEXAS RANGERS – ???

Although I can’t come up with a single Rangers 2011 rookie who I believe will have an impact in 2012, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The Rangers have a solid veteran team that is currently in first place. In particular, their lineup is flush with good veteran talent. Perhaps 2012 is when they will start incorporating some rookies and infusing a little more youth on to their roster.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS – 3B BRETT LAWRIE

It seemed that the baseball world waited a long time for Lawrie to get called up this year. He was poised to come up in June, but a fractured bone in his hand pushed that back to August.
If his numbers in the minor leagues, and his first couple of weeks in the majors are any indication, Lawrie is going to be an offensive monster. The deep lineup that Toronto has will allow Lawrie to hit towards the bottom if the team feels it is necessary to work him in gradually. His defense continues to need work, but his bat is too good for Toronto to keep down. His enthusiastic grand slam indicates that his infectious emotion will also fit in well with the Blue Jays team.
While there is still baseball to be played in 2011, it never hurts to look ahead to the next year when trying to figure out how each team’s roster will fill out. As you can see, there has been a good crop of rookies this year, and most teams are planning on at least one of them playing an integral role in 2012.

Andrew Martin appreciates and writes about all aspects of baseball and its history at his blog, The Baseball Historian. You can also follow him on Twitter at @RedSoxFanNum1.
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Swen Huijer Interview: The Cook Who Became a Pitcher

August 12, 2011 – Andrew Martin
Baseball is not that popular in the Netherlands. Other than when the national team plays in the WBC, it is just another sport in a country dominated by soccer. Therefore any Dutch player who is any good is bound to stand out more in their home country, particularly if they stand 6’9 like Swen Huijer.
Huijer is one of the more recent Dutch baseball exports to play professional baseball. The lanky right-handed pitcher was signed as a free agent in 2008 by the Boston Red Sox. He had pitched for the Netherlands’ junior national team, but never seriously considered a professional career. Instead, Huijer was focused on becoming a chef, and was completing culinary school at the time he was contacted by Boston.
Given his general lack of baseball experience, the Red Sox took it slowly with Huijer during his first few years in the minor leagues. This season he is pitching for the Lowell Spinner in the New York Penn League, and has gone 1-2 with a 2.45 ERA over 25.2 innings, in 9 games out of the bullpen. Despite limited innings he has pitched well at every stop so far in his minor league career. More information about his statistics can be found here.
His fastball currently tops out around the high 80’s, but at 20 years-old, Huijer is young enough, and has enough length to grow into his repertoire. It remains to be seen if he will project as a starter or reliever, but the Red Sox have gambled that he has a chance to turn into a useful piece for their franchise down the road. While he is liable serve up something delicious to eat, if all goes well, don’t expect Swen Huijer to serve up many base hits.

SWEN HUIJER INTERVIEW

How did you first become interested in baseball?
It started off with my Dad. My Dad played baseball for a beer team when I was a kid in the Netherlands. When I was I think about four years old, I started going to the night games with him. Walking around with his bat, and trying to swing his bat when I was like four feet tall. From there on, I just loved the game so much that I started playing, and my Dad started coaching. From there, it kept growing.
How big is baseball in the Netherlands?
It’s not very big. Our number one sport is soccer, obviously. And it will never get as big. It’s growing, especially with all the attention we get from international tournaments; the WBC, the World Cups, but it will never be as big as it is in the United States.
What was it like getting signed by the Red Sox? How did you first know they were interested in you?
Well, I played for the Dutch National Junior Team. From there on, we got a tournament in Italy. I pitched down there against Italy and somehow one of my pitching coaches was a scout for the Red Sox. I never knew about that, the whole program that we played, for four months… never noticed anything. After that, he called me and was like, ‘Listen up, we want you on our team and we got a contract down here for you.’ First, I thought he was kidding, and it ended up that the contract was there in two weeks, and I signed after that.
Did you do anything special for yourself or your family after you signed?
No, not really. I had to finish school. I was doing chef school, culinary school, so I had to finish that first. After that, I actually got on a plane five days after that. That’s where I got my degree; that school. After that I didn’t have much time to celebrate.
How has your experience been in the United States and playing in the minor leagues?
It’s been absolutely fantastic. I’ve had so much fun. I spent the last three years in Fort Myers in rookie ball. Finally got the call after extended spring this year to go up to Lowell, and it’s been a whole different experience. You get fans. You get night games. You travel on the road for a couple of days. It’s just awesome.

Andrew Martin appreciates and writes about all aspects of baseball and its history at his blog, The Baseball Historian. You can also follow him on Twitter at @RedSoxFanNum1.
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The Music is Still Sweet: A Conversation with Frank Viola

August 7, 2011 – Andrew Martin
Frank Viola was always the definition of a “silky left-handed pitcher.” With his seemingly effortless delivery, which produced excellent results during his career, he more than earned his nickname of “Sweet Music.” If injuries hadn’t effectively ended his career at age 34, it would have been interesting to see where his final numbers would have ended up.
New York was where Viola developed as a baseball player. He grew up a Mets fan in East Meadow, and later attended St. John’s University on a baseball scholarship. It is a place that is very important to him, and even today you can immediately identify his roots just by hearing him speak.
Viola was first drafted in 1979 by the Kansas City Royals, but he declined to sign in order to return to college. It was a fortuitous decision, because in 1981 he was chosen by the Minnesota Twins in the 2nd round. The Twins became the team that Viola will always be most linked with, and where he achieved his greatest success.
After just 25 minor league games, Viola was deemed Major League ready and summoned to the parent club. He struggled in his first two years, with an 11-25 record and an ERA over 5.00. Fortunately the Twins stuck with him, and their loyalty subsequently paid off handsomely.
Viola developed into one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, compiling a number of impressive career highlights. He helped the Twins win the 1987 World Series, and won the Series MVP award, after winning Games 1 and 7 against St. Louis. Viola was also named the 1988 American League Cy Young Award winner after going 24-7 with a 2.64 ERA.
As the 1989 trade deadline was about to expire, Viola was sent to the New York Mets for a package of young players that included Rick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani. The move was designed to reload the Twins with cheaper talent, and did ultimately pay off, as the team won the World Series again in 1991. It also allowed Viola to return to his New York home.
Viola won 20 games with the Mets in 1990 and 13 in 1991, but the team was not able to overcome the Pittsburgh Pirates’ mini-dynasty, led by Bobby Bonilla and Barry Bonds. The Mets finished no better than second place during Viola’s tenure in New York.
In January, 1992, Viola signed a three year free agent contract with the Boston Red Sox. He posted solid numbers during his first two seasons with them, but in early 1994, he hurt his arm and had to have Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately he never made it all the way back from the injury, and only won one more Major League game in his career, finishing up in 1995 with the Cincinnati Reds and 1996 with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Over the course of 15 Major League seasons, Viola posted a record of 176-150, with a 3.73 ERA, and 1,844 strikeouts. He made three All Star games, and was generally considered one of the most consistent pitchers in the game while he played. For more information on his career statistics, click here.
I will always remember Viola as the best pitcher on the great, but underrated Minnesota teams of the mid-to-late 1980’s. They were a blend of talent and interesting characters, with a roster that also included Kirby Puckett, Bert Blyleven, and Kent Hrbek.
It was a thrill to be able to chat with Viola recently, when he came to town in his new capacity of pitching coach with the Brooklyn Cyclones. Not only does he still look surprisingly similar to how he appeared 20 to 25 years ago, all of his time in the game and the spotlight has not affected his kindly nature. Although our conversation was brief, it was a great opportunity to find out more about the man they call “Sweet Music.”

FRANK VIOLA INTERVIEW

How did you first become interested in baseball?
Just watching it. My father was a big fan of the game. When I was a young kid I always wanted to hang out with Dad. The Mets were a couple of years old, and my Dad was a New York Giant fan, so when New York went to San Francisco, he became a Mets fan. I became a Met fan, started watching baseball, and fell in love with it. Here I am, 46 years later, still enjoying the heck out of the game.
Your favorite team was the Mets, but did you have a favorite player?
I guess of all the Mets, the ’69 team I remember more, and the one player I followed more than anybody was Cleon Jones. That was the year that he hit .340, and I know that he got the putout for the final out of the seventh game of the World Series. That was very cool.
Do you have a favorite moment from your playing career?
Oh yeah. Going into the pile after Game 7. Pitching the first 8 innings of Game 7 of the ’87 World Series against the Cardinals, and watching Jeff Reardon get the last out of the game; a ground ball to Gaetti, over to Hrbek. Just telling my legs, ‘Get into the pile. Don’t collapse before you get in the pile, and just enjoy the moment.’ That’s what you play baseball for, winning the whole thing and being a part of that. That’s what I remember most.
Did you have a favorite coach or manager?
I had a number of them, but the guy who I drew most from was probably Tom Kelly. Tom was very special. He was what they call a player’s manager. A player’s manager is somebody who I say can be a friend. When he needs to discipline you or has something to say, you listen to him and respect him, and go from that point on. He was one of those guys where there was a fine line, and he was able to go along with that. You couldn’t help but love the man, and he got the results.
Is there anything about your career that you would do differently?
No, I’m very pleased with how everything went. If there’s one thing, it would probably be, and I would even argue with myself on this one… But when I had my Tommy John surgery, I gave myself a couple of years to come back to where I was, and didn’t get to that point. But I don’t think that I really gave it the best chance. So I guess if anything, maybe have gone a little longer to see if my arm rebounded, but then again, I would have missed a lot of my three kids growing up, and I tell you what, I wouldn’t trade in those years for anything.
What is the strangest play you remember seeing or being a part of?
Oh, that’s an easy one. Dave Kingman was at the plate with the Oakland A’s; I was pitching in the Metrodome. I threw a fastball and he hit it straight up above home plate, and it never came down. It got stuck in the ceiling of the Metrodome. So the following day… and he got a ground rule double on a ball that could have been fair, could have been foul, because that was the ruling at the time… The following day, Mickey Hatcher climbed up there with the rest of the Grounds Crew, and found the ball and threw it down to pretend like we found it, and we completed the play 24 hours later. That was pretty cool and different.

Andrew Martin appreciates and writes about all aspects of baseball and its history at his blog, The Baseball Historian. You can also follow him on Twitter at @RedSoxFanNum1.